International oil prices jumped to the highest level since 2014, topping $87 a barrel but domestic petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged for the 74th day in a row - a freeze that may be linked to ensuing assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Brent - the key global oil benchmark - soared to $87.7 per barrel mostly due to rising geopolitical tensions and supply-side disturbances due to Yemen's Houthi group's attack on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates. Also, global inventories are waning. The attack, some analysts believe, may lead to more hostile behaviour between the two power centres in the Middle East - Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Suddenly, demand-supply mismatch is no longer offered as the standard plausible explanation.
Maintaining that the Indian economy was resilient to oil price shocks, Reserve Bank of India Governor Y V Reddy on Wednesday said the oil prices needed to be closely monitored, though it is not a disturbing factor.
High crude oil prices, widening current account gap and political uncertainty may keep the rupee weak in the near term.
The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
Marico is expected to post high single-digit volume growth in the India business in the July-September quarter. However, it is expected to moderate sequentially, the company said in its quarterly update on exchanges.
The BSE Sensex has been one of the top-performing areas of investment in the past 40 years, consistently delivering double-digit returns in rupee terms, beating assets such as global equities, precious metals, and fixed income.
The current trend in crude oil prices gives cause for much concern and if this persists, many of the calculations indicating further recovery and improved growth for the economy can be nullified.
In a first, Indian oil public sector undertakings (PSUs) finalised a one-year contract to import around 2.2 million tonnes (mt) of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US. The LPG import deal comes at a time when negotiations for an India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA) are gathering steam. Earlier in the month, US President Donald Trump had said Washington and New Delhi were "pretty close" to reaching a fair trade deal.
The banking sector in the country is stable, capital is available and credit offtake is poised to take off, he said at a webinar organised by Bharat Chamber of Commerce. "We are not unique to the phenomenon of uncertain growth and high inflation due to the pandemic.
Indian Oil Corporation has approached the petroleum ministry with a proposal to raise oil prices by Rs 5.29 a litre and diesel by 4.54 a litre in line with the price band formula worked out by the government.\n\n
From the 30-Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics, Power Grid, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, and Bajaj Finserv were among the biggest gainers. However, HCL Tech, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, and Sun Pharma were the laggards.
Government will review fuel pricing scenario in October, Petroleum Secretary M S Srinivasan said on Thursday. The petroleum secretary further said, "Situation will be revisited in October when we will take stock of the scenario emerging out of international oil prices." Global crude prices touched a record $145 a barrel, which is expected to push India's oil import bill this year higher by nearly 76 per cent to $110-120 billion.
WPI inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global cues would dictate trends in the stock market this week, analysts said.
'Crude oil prices are around $66-67 per barrel now but could fall to $55-60 if global disturbances ease.'
Wholesale price inflation dropped to 0.85 per cent in April as prices of food articles, manufactured products, and fuel eased, government data showed on Wednesday. WPI-based inflation was 2.05 per cent in March. It was 1.19 per cent in April last year.
The dollar devaluation has seen revenue loss incurred by state-run oil firms on fuel sales trimming to about Rs 96 crore per day.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the surge in international oil prices is a matter of grave concern and it was for the petroleum ministry to take a call on retail pricing of petroleum products.
Tyre stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, with average returns exceeding 45 per cent. Except for Apollo Tyres, which has seen a slight correction in the last month and a half, limiting its gains to 16 per cent, listed peers such as MRF, CEAT Tyres (formerly Cavi Elettrici e Affini Torino), and JK Tyre & Industries have delivered returns exceeding 30 per cent during this period. Production-related constraints and sluggish demand in Europe, where sales are expected to remain flat, coupled with high valuations, have contributed to Apollo Tyres' underperformance. The tyre sector's gains can be attributed to robust growth trends driven by the replacement market, which constitutes more than two-thirds of sales.
Economics and politics both have major roles in determining oil prices.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
Soft oil prices are expected to persist in 2015 and will be accompanied by significant real income shifts from oil-exporting to oil-importing countries.
Crude oil has fallen about 40 per cent since mid June and the price on Monday touched its lowest level since mid 2009 before US oil prices posted their biggest one-day gain in two years overnight.
Unless there is a sharp uptick in oil prices, Fed may push back rate hike
The price of jet fuel (ATF) was sharply increased by 7.5 per cent on Tuesday, while the cost of LPG used in commercial establishments was reduced by Rs 58.50 per cylinder, reflecting shifts in international benchmark rates. After three rounds of price cuts, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price was increased by Rs 6,271.5 per kilolitre, or 7.5 per cent, to Rs 89,344.05 per kl in the national capital - home to one of the busiest airports in the country, according to state-owned fuel retailers.
If the global economy slows down or slips into a recession due to high oil prices, that will eventually hurt all of us.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty on Thursday gave up all early gains to settle lower as surging oil prices amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine hit investor sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex started the trade on a higher note and jumped 527.72 points in morning deals to a high of 55,996.62. However, during the afternoon trade it surrendered all its early gains and finished at 55,102.68, lower by 366.22 points or 0.66 per cent.
Ahead of a meeting of oil producers' cartel OPEC, India on Tuesday said the current oil prices are "very challenging" and rates need to be a "little bit sober" lest they impact a consumption-led recovery of the global economy. Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who last week again urged OPEC to phase out its production cuts, said India is a price-sensitive market and it will buy oil wherever it gets competitive rates. The rebound in international oil prices from lows hit last month on the back of demand recovery has led to a spike in petrol and diesel retail prices in India.
Despite the recovery to above $40 levels after hitting $28-29 in Jan, worries of over-supply in the face of weak demand remain.
The spurt in rates, caused by the rally in international oil prices, has led to the oil ministry asking the finance ministry for a cut in excise duty in the Union Budget 2018-19, to be presented in Parliament next week.
The interest of the poor can be protected by providing targeted subsidy, Planning Commission's Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said, adding that increased energy cost would have to be shared by the consumers as the burden is currently being largely borne by public sector oil companies.
Crude oil price of $50 a barrel in the international market would pull down India's GDP growth by 0.4 per cent and push up inflation by 1.5 per cent, a FICCI study has said.
If you are actively trading, you can't possibly overlook headlines. Early announcements, policy changes, or even a disruption in a certain industry habitually grab your attention. These headlines, when strategically assessed, can generate profitable trading ideas.
Oil prices could reach $100 per barrel if there were "dramatic" developments in the Gulf or elsewhere, a leading oil official has said.
Packaged food major Nestle India posted better than expected September quarter results led by strong volume growth across its key segments. While there were margin pressures due to elevated raw material costs, there could be some relief with easing prices in the near term.
Stock market sentiment is likely to remain optimistic going ahead, though some consolidation cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp rally in the benchmarks, analysts said. According to experts, the Nifty and Sensex could indeed move towards new record highs before the end of the year, if global cues stay supportive, crude oil prices remain benign and there is continued domestic earnings momentum.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
Amid concerns over price rise, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday said inflation will come down to 6.5 per cent by March-end if the international oil prices soften and commodity prices do not rise further.
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